Chandra Dhakal, PhD

Health Economist | Econometrician | Policy Researcher

Transforming Complex Data into Actionable Global Health Policy

Professional Profile

Health Economist at the CDC Foundation, supporting the Division of Global Health Protection with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA. Leading the Data to Policy (D2P) program under the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health Initiative, working with international health ministries across 19 countries.

25+
Publications
1000
Citations
h-15
h-index

BACKGROUND & PHILOSOPHY

Originally from Nepal, my career journey has spanned Kathmandu, Texas, and Georgia—evolving from applied economics to the high-stakes intersection of health economics, statistics, and global health policy. My work bridges rigorous quantitative methodology with real-world policy impact, translating complex econometric analyses into actionable evidence for decision-makers.

With a PhD in Applied Economics from the University of Georgia, complemented by an MS in Statistics, I specialize in causal inference, structural econometric modeling, and health economic evaluation. My research addresses critical questions at the intersection of public policy and population health: How do safety net programs affect vulnerable populations? What incentive structures can improve public health outcomes? How can we optimize resource allocation in low- and middle-income countries?

Research Philosophy

"I believe data is only as valuable as the policy it informs. My mission is to make complex simulation models and econometric analyses accessible to government leaders, ensuring evidence-based resource allocation that prioritizes equity and maximizes population health impact. Every regression tells a story about people's lives; every model should guide decisions that improve those lives."

Research Expertise

  • Causal Inference & Quasi-Experimental Methods
  • Structural Econometric Modeling
  • Health Economic Evaluation (CEA, CUA, BIA)
  • Decision-Analytic Modeling (Markov, Microsimulation)
  • Large-Scale Data Analytics (Billions of Observations)
  • Machine Learning for Health Prediction

Policy Impact Areas

  • Safety Net Program Evaluation (UI, SNAP)
  • Public Health Intervention Design
  • Chronic Disease Prevention & Management
  • Health Disparities & Equity Analysis
  • Global Health Priority-Setting
  • Climate Adaptation & Agricultural Economics

Education

PhD

Applied Economics

University of Georgia, 2022

MS Statistics

University of Georgia, 2021

MS Applied Economics

Texas Tech University, 2016

BS Agriculture (Economics)

Tribhuvan University, Nepal

Research Portfolio

My research program combines theoretical rigor, methodological innovation, and policy relevance across three interconnected themes.

Theme 1: Safety Net Programs & Economic Shocks

Evaluating how economic policies and social programs affect vulnerable populations, with emphasis on food security, health outcomes, and financial well-being during economic disruptions.

Unemployment Insurance & Food Hardship

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2023

Analyzed the impact of $600/week Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation expiration on 18+ million households. Found 9.7% reduction in food spending and 6.0% decline in food sufficiency using control function approach in endogenous switching regression framework.

Difference-in-Differences Propensity Score Matching

SNAP & Household Food Purchasing

Nutrients, 2021

Using Nielsen Homescan data with billions of transaction records, estimated demand elasticities using the Exact Affine Stone Index demand system. Quantified SNAP's impact on nutritional quality and spending patterns.

Structural Demand Models Big Data (Billions of Obs)

Theme 2: Public Health Interventions & Behavioral Economics

Designing and evaluating innovative public health interventions using behavioral economics frameworks and rigorous causal inference methods.

State Vaccine Lottery Programs

JAMA Network Open, 2021 | 79 Citations | Co-First Author

Evaluated lottery-based vaccine incentive programs across multiple states using 403,714 individual responses and state-level vaccination data. Applied difference-in-differences with augmented synthetic control methods. Found 2.1% overall uptake increase with substantial heterogeneity—ineffective in Republican-leaning states (AR, KY, WV).

Synthetic Control Behavioral Economics National Policy Impact

E-cigarette Use & Diabetes Risk

American Journal of Preventive Medicine Focus, 2024

Analyzed 1.2M+ adults from BRFSS 2020-2022. Sole e-cigarette users showed 7% higher prediabetes odds (AOR 1.07); dual users showed 24% higher prediabetes odds (AOR 1.24) and 4% higher diabetes odds. Identified disparities by education, income, BMI, and race/ethnicity—critical for FDA tobacco regulation.

Large-Scale Survey Data Health Disparities

Theme 3: Chronic Disease Epidemiology & Machine Learning

Leveraging machine learning and advanced statistical methods to predict disease risk, identify modifiable risk factors, and inform clinical screening protocols.

Machine Learning for Diabetes Prediction

Int. J. Environmental Research and Public Health, 2021 | 301 Citations | Co-First Author

Developed and validated ML models (Random Forest, XGBoost, Neural Networks) for Type 2 Diabetes prediction using BRFSS data. Achieved 85%+ accuracy identifying high-risk individuals. Work has influenced clinical screening protocols and risk stratification approaches globally.

Machine Learning Clinical Impact Highly Cited (301)

Diabetes Trends & Disparities (2012-2022)

JAMA Network Open, 2024

Comprehensive decade-long analysis of diabetes prevalence trends across demographic subgroups. Identified widening disparities by race/ethnicity, education, and geographic region, informing targeted intervention strategies.

Longitudinal Analysis Health Equity

Climate & Agriculture

Climate change adaptation strategies in Nepal: 21.6% revenue increase, 6.4% risk reduction. Published in Resources, Environment and Sustainability (42 citations).

Interdisciplinary Research

AI & NLP

AgriBERT transformer models for agricultural text analysis (IJCAI 2022, 81 citations). LLM bias research examining human-like biases in large language models.

Data Science Innovation

Global Health Economics

Cost-effectiveness analyses for NCDs, cancer screening, maternal health, and road safety across 19 LMICs. Decision modeling training for international health economists.

Capacity Building

Selected Publications

25+ peer-reviewed publications | 1000 citations | h-index: 15 | i10-index: 20

301 CITATIONS 2021 | Co-First Author

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Developed predictive models achieving 85%+ accuracy, influencing clinical screening protocols globally.

Machine Learning BRFSS Data Clinical Impact
81 CITATIONS 2022 | Co-Author

AgriBERT: Knowledge-Infused Agricultural Language Models

International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI)

Transformer models for agricultural text analysis and knowledge extraction using domain-specific pretraining.

NLP Deep Learning Agriculture
79 CITATIONS 2021 | Co-First Author

Lottery-Based Incentives and COVID-19 Vaccination Rates

JAMA Network Open

Evaluated state lottery programs using 403K+ responses. Found 2.1% uptake increase with substantial state heterogeneity.

Behavioral Economics Synthetic Control Policy Impact
42 CITATIONS 2022

Climate Change Adaptation and Agricultural Productivity in Nepal

Resources, Environment and Sustainability

Demonstrated 21.6% revenue increase and 6.4% risk reduction from climate adaptation strategies.

Climate Economics Development South Asia

Recent Publications (2023-2026)

American Journal of Preventive Medicine Focus, 2024

Heterogeneous association between e-cigarette use and diabetes prevalence among US adults

New
American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2024

Trends and Disparities in Diabetes Prevalence in the US from 2012 to 2022

New
Diabetes, Obesity & Metabolism, 2024

Regional disparities in type 2 diabetes prevalence and associated risk factors in the United States

26 Citations
IEEE Transactions on Big Data, 2024

Exploring new frontiers in agricultural nlp: Investigating the potential of large language models for food applications

57 Citations
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2023

Unemployment Insurance Benefit Reduction and Food Hardship Among Low-Income Households

8 Citations

Professional Experience

Health Economist / Data to Policy Lead

CDC Foundation

Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health Initiative

Dec 2021 – Present

Leading the Data to Policy (D2P) program supporting the Division of Global Health Protection at CDC, working with international health ministries across 19 countries to strengthen evidence-based priority-setting and resource allocation for population health interventions.

Key Responsibilities

  • Designing and implementing cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA), cost-utility analyses (CUA), and budget impact analyses (BIA) for health interventions
  • Developing decision-analytic models (Markov models, microsimulation) for cancer screening, NCD prevention, maternal health, and road safety
  • Leading international capacity-building workshops training health economists in LMICs
  • Providing technical assistance to ministries of health on evidence generation and priority-setting frameworks

Impact Highlights

  • Trained 37 participants from 19 countries in Cebu, Philippines (Jan 2025)
  • Developed standardized CEA frameworks adopted by multiple LMIC health ministries
  • Collaborated with WHO, World Bank, and bilateral development agencies
  • Published methodological guidance on health economic evaluation in resource-constrained settings

Graduate Research & Teaching Assistant

University of Georgia

2016 – 2022

Conducted dissertation research on health economics and safety net programs while serving as instructor of record for undergraduate econometrics courses.

Teaching: Analytical & Computational Tools for Applied Economics

Taught econometric methods and computational skills using Stata/R. Students worked with real datasets (Nielsen scanner data, BRFSS) to answer policy questions.

Research: Dissertation on Food Assistance Programs

Analyzed SNAP participation effects using structural demand models and Nielsen/IRI scanner data with billions of observations.

Assistant Professor

Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal

2014 – 2015

Led academic instruction in agricultural economics, supervised undergraduate research projects, and mentored students in quantitative research methods. Developed curriculum for applied econometrics and rural development economics.

Research Associate

Nepal Development Research Institute, Kathmandu

2012 – 2013

Conducted policy research on regional development, agricultural productivity, and climate adaptation. Collaborated with government agencies and international development organizations on evidence generation for rural development programs.

Teaching Philosophy & Experience

Committed to research-integrated pedagogy that transforms students into independent researchers capable of producing evidence-based insights.

Core Principles

  • Active Learning Through Real Data: Students work with authentic datasets (Nielsen scanner, BRFSS, administrative data) to answer substantive policy questions
  • Inclusive Excellence: Universal design principles supporting students from diverse backgrounds; extensive scaffolding paired with high expectations
  • Methodological Transparency: Sharing failed analyses and research challenges to demystify the research process
  • Policy Communication: Training students to translate technical analysis into accessible policy briefs

Courses Prepared to Teach

UNDERGRADUATE

  • • Health Economics
  • • Public Health Policy & Economics
  • • Applied Econometrics for Public Policy

MASTER'S

  • • Advanced Health Economics
  • • Health Technology Assessment & Decision Modeling
  • • Quantitative Methods for Health Policy Research
  • • Food & Nutrition Economics

DOCTORAL

  • • Empirical Methods in Health Economics
  • • Large-Scale Data Analysis for Health Research
  • • Seminar in Applied Health Economics

Mentoring Approach

Undergraduate Students

Independent studies, honors theses, research skills development, career guidance

Master's Students

Professional skill building, applied project supervision, industry connections, PhD preparation

PhD Students

Dissertation guidance, co-authorship, conference presentations, job market preparation

Global Impact & Capacity Building

Training health economists and supporting evidence-based health policy across 19 countries through the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health Initiative.

Upcoming Engagements 2026

MAR

Regional D2P Training of Trainers

Lusaka, Zambia • March 2-5, 2026

Leading regional capacity-building workshop for African health economists on cost-effectiveness analysis and priority-setting frameworks.

JAN

Decision Modeling Workshop

Cebu, Philippines • January 26-30, 2025

Trained 37 participants from 19 countries on Markov models, microsimulation, and cost-effectiveness analysis for NCDs, cancer screening, and maternal health.

Active Project Countries

Thailand
South Africa
Bangladesh
Zambia
Uganda
Tanzania
Rwanda
+ 12 more

Collaborating with ministries of health, WHO country offices, and regional training centers to strengthen health economics capacity and evidence-based decision-making.

19
Countries Supported
100+
Economists Trained
50+
CEA Models Developed
10+
Policy Briefs Published

Technical Expertise

Econometric Methods

  • Difference-in-Differences
  • Regression Discontinuity
  • Instrumental Variables
  • Propensity Score Matching
  • Synthetic Control Methods
  • Structural Demand Estimation
  • Panel Data Models
  • Endogenous Switching Regression

Programming & Tools

Languages

R Python Stata SAS SQL

Platforms & Infrastructure

AWS Tableau Power BI

Specialized Software

TreeAge SPSS

Health Economics

  • Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
  • Cost-Utility Analysis
  • Budget Impact Analysis
  • Markov Modeling
  • Microsimulation
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • QALY/DALY Estimation
  • Survival Analysis

Machine Learning & AI

Supervised Learning

Random Forest XGBoost Neural Networks SVM Logistic Regression

Natural Language Processing

Transformer Models BERT Text Mining Sentiment Analysis

Awards & Honors

Outstanding Article Award

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2020

Graduate School Travel Award

University of Georgia (Multiple Years)

Early Career Research Scholar

USAID Feed the Future Innovation Lab

Doctoral Research Fellowship

University of Georgia, 2016-2022

Professional Service

Peer Review

Reviewer for leading journals including:

Applied Economics Plos One Health Services Research JAMA Network Open Frontiers in Medicine Econometrics Suatainability Nutrients BMJ American Journal of Preventive Medicine

Professional Memberships

  • • American Society of Health Economists (ASHEcon)
  • • Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA)
  • • Southern Economics Association

Teaching Experience

Instructor of Record: Analytical & Computational Tools for Applied Economics, University of Georgia

Application Materials

Download comprehensive application documents for academic positions

Beyond the Research

I treasure time spent with my wife, Usha, and our daughter, Chaha. Beyond the data and models, I am a passionate traveler exploring diverse cultures, a dedicated home cook, a swimmer, a hiker, an avid reader of classical and contemporary literature, and a keen observer of developments in AI and financial markets.

"The best econometric models are those that remember they're describing human lives, not just data points."